In an effort to diversify this blog and produce some more
academic content I wanted to start a section I’ll humbly call “Nozology”. Ideas
and thoughts stemming from observations or inspired by other great minds that
are then shamelessly ripped off.
I’m currently reading When to Rob a Bank: The Freakopeadia
by Levitt and Dubner. Like anyone who is reading a “Freako” book they feel a
sudden surge of smugness and superiority when faced with life’s trivialities
and in my case this has spurred me on to write this entry. One chapter in the
book focuses on Dubner’s use of a Manhattan bus and how when it is particularly
crowded he will embark earlier down the street at a different bus stop. Although
not that far a walk away from the initial bus stop this stop is usually quieter
and affords a better choice of seat. Dubner questions why, when such a small
amount of effort is required to gain a better experience, does no one else
follow suit and also use the preceding bus stop to avoid a miserable journey? His
prime theory is herd mentality; the notion that if you see a large crowd using
this bus stop then that must mean this is the optimal bus stop to use. How
could so many people be getting it wrong after all?
Warwick University (where I went to uni) has a similar example
of this scenario. At around 5 o’clock (17:00) on a weekday there is a swell of
students wishing to leave campus by bus to return to Leamington Spa. I don’t
think many will disagree with me when I say the bus service provided is
sub-optimal in terms of capacity and frequency. Often hundreds of students will
attempt to cram onto a double-decker or two. The worst spot on campus for this
was the “Library” bus stop. A bus stop so named because it was nearest the
Humanities building, Engineering building and Sports Centre and, notably, not
the library. I assume this was a hive-mind labelling to pacify any potential
attempts at ownership of the bus stop by one department who could then chastise
others for using “their” bus stop.
Library bus stop was situated on the one artery road that
ran through campus. Along this road were three other bus stops. Library bus
stop was in the centre of the three. This road was not particularly long as you
will see from the following map (Bus stops are marked a Red “B”s in the centre of the map).
The first bus stop along the road, “Gatehouse bus stop”
(more appropriately named as it was near the university gatehouse but which
itself didn’t have a gate) acted as a break point for the drivers before that
started another loop of their patch. Often 2 or 3 bus could be found stacked up
ready to make a tour of campus and on to Leamington and, once the driver had
sufficiently refilled on nicotine, could be boarded relatively easily without
wading through a scrum of tired students. This bus stop was a mere 321 metres (by
Google Maps’ estimates) from the second bus, Library bus stop.
One final detail; my understanding of New York is that most
things are in a grid allowing you to see down the entire street at once. I’d
venture therefore that the people waiting in Dubner’s example could see the bus
coming and perhaps even the emptier bus stop. Craftily the Warwick uni bus
stops are all concealed from each other around bends.
The scene is set so I want you to imagine that you are a
student at Warwick trampling out of your lecture eager to get home. You stand amongst
the throng and now are faced with a choice; stick with Library bus stop (LBS)
or journey down to Gatehouse bus stop (GBS).
I believe Dubner overlooked a couple of elements in his blog
on why no one moves and would like to propose a thesis of my own:
1.
Fear of missing a bus. Ultimately the aim is to
get on a bus and go home as soon as possible. So; yes, your odds of getting on
a bus at LBS are slim but should you start walking and from around the bend
comes a bus your odds have shrunk to nothing. Fear keeps you rooted amongst the
crowd knowing your gamble could mean waiting an undetermined amount of time
until the next bus is released from the traps at GBS. Which brings me to:
2.
Unpredictability of the buses. Warwick uni is
plagued by bus companies running lackadaisical timetables. They also live in
fear of the bus company throwing the ultimate curve ball; the single decker bus
which pushes the ante so high friendships have been forged and broken on the
back of who and who has not made it onto the destitute carriage. (A worthy
study sample of in-group and out-group dynamics if ever there were one).
3.
Getting home sooner ranks higher than comfort of
the journey. Dubner likes to be able to sit with his daughter in their own
space. Students (and perhaps the commuting New Yorkers) aren’t as fussed about
having a seat (the best seat on a double decker bus by the way is the top deck,
front row) as they are about getting to where they are going. Waiting at LBS
may take an unknown amount of time (Time until bus arrives) but eventually a
bus will come. However, if you leave
for GBS you may find yourself stuck in an extended period of waiting if a bus
passes you on your way. GBS wait time therefore = Time until bus arrives +
potential of extra waiting if a bus comes to LBS whilst you walk to GBS.
Still with me? If not don’t fear because you are
experiencing what it is to be a Warwick student as, ultimately, I suggest that
herd mentality is not the key cause of mass bus-stopping but that the sheer
weight of the decision maths required can cripple a person’s brain to such an
extent that it’s easier to just get swept along with the crowd.
Thanks for reading
-Norris
Freakonomics blog in question:
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